Is the supply chain affected by the "Pacific Ocean Tsunami"?

Arabian Sea Newspaper - Special

((Arab Sea)) Agencies: The Pacific Ocean is witnessing a major geological event, highlighting the natural hazards that can extend beyond direct geographical boundaries. A powerful earthquake in the far east of Russia has triggered widespread tsunami warnings, prompting emergency mobilization in several countries bordering this vital basin. These developments raise questions about the ability of coastal infrastructure to absorb sudden crises, at a time when remote areas are increasingly important in global trade and energy flows through sea lanes. Given the interconnectedness of markets, any disruption in these areas could have an impact that transcends local borders. While experts differ on the extent of the actual repercussions, the event raises concerns about indirect effects on supply chains, energy prices, and the image of the countries concerned in managing natural disasters. What are the latest developments? A powerful earthquake measuring 8.8 on the Richter scale struck off the Kamchatka Peninsula in the far east of Russia in the early hours of Wednesday. The earthquake triggered tsunami warnings in Japan and several western U.S. states, including Hawaii, Alaska, and California. The earthquake led to evacuation orders in Hawaii and Japan. The U.S. Coast Guard also ordered commercial vessels docked in Hawaiian ports to evacuate. Tsunami waves reached California and Hawaii hours after the earthquake in eastern Russia. The U.S. National Tsunami Warning Center said Wednesday morning that tsunami waves of 1.6 feet above the tide level were recorded in Arena Bay, California. In Hawaii, tsunami waves of up to 4.9 feet above the tide level were recorded, although the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said available data indicated that a major tsunami was not expected to hit the island state. The U.S. National Weather Service warned earlier on Wednesday that a powerful earthquake in the Pacific basin had caused a tsunami. Tsunami warnings and advisories were issued in Hawaii, parts of Alaska, Guam, American Samoa, and the U.S. West Coast, according to a report by CNBC. Japan issued tsunami warnings for most of its eastern coast and less severe advisories for other parts of the country, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. The agency estimated that a tsunami would hit Hokkaido, the Japanese region closest to the epicenter, at 10 a.m. local time in Japan, with a maximum height of about three meters. Will supply chains be affected? Abu Bakr al-Deeb, an expert in international economic and political relations, tells "Sky News Arabia Economy" that the current developments related to the tsunami waves threatening several regions after the massive earthquake in Russia "highlight the fragility of transoceanic supply chains and the extent to which the global economy depends on the stability of geographically remote but strategically important regions." He explains that the tsunami may open the door to serious economic repercussions on global supply chains and energy markets, given the highly sensitive geographical location of Kamchatka, which overlooks the Pacific Ocean and is close to vital maritime shipping lanes between Asia and North America, and represents part of the sea route used to ship goods from eastern Russian ports such as Vladivostok to Asian markets, especially China, South Korea, and Japan. He adds: "According to initial estimates, the earthquake has disrupted some ports and logistical infrastructure, which may be directly reflected in the flow of raw materials and industrial products, especially metals and energy exported from the far east of Russia. Navigation data indicate that about 15 to 20 percent of Russia's maritime trade passes through this region, which means that any disruption in this route may cause delays in shipments and raise maritime transport costs in light of rising insurance prices for ships crossing the region." He adds: "Moreover, Russia is one of the largest producers of liquefied natural gas, and part of the infrastructure of this sector is located in the far east, so any impact on liquefaction facilities or export stations will lead to pressure on gas prices, especially in Asia. This is in addition to the negative psychological impact on global markets, which may lead to immediate increases in oil and gas prices." Reuters quoted a Russian official as saying that tsunami waves averaging 3 to 4 meters (10-13 feet) were recorded in Kamchatka. Waves in Japan were smaller, ranging from 30 centimeters to 1.3 meters, with the highest level recorded in Kuji port in Iwate prefecture, according to Japanese broadcaster NHK. Global threats A report by Hozint (a company specializing in providing organizations with security alerts and proactive warnings about global threats) on its website, indicates that The July 30 tsunami highlights critical vulnerabilities in civil infrastructure, particularly in remote Russian Pacific locations and U.S. island territories. While losses appear minimal, comprehensive pressure on public utilities, transportation, and emergency systems is likely in the short term. With the increasing frequency and intensity of climate-related tectonic events, investing in coastal resilience and compatible early warning systems has become strategically critical. Continued monitoring of aftershocks, infrastructure pressure, and political responses is advisable. The report indicates that: While not considered a direct geopolitical flashpoint, the level of transparency in disaster response can affect international perceptions of state capacity, especially in Russia, which already faces reputational challenges as a result of its military operations abroad. Disruption to Arctic and Pacific trade routes (via the Northern Sea Route) may also occur if port infrastructure in eastern Russia remains damaged. Are there long-term effects? Dr. Rami al-Qalyubi, professor at the Moscow Higher School of Economics, tells "Sky News Arabia Economy": "There will be no significant impact, as the earthquake occurred in a remote area in the Kamchatka Peninsula, which is far from vital Russian centers such as Moscow, and economic and oil regions." But in the long term, there is no doubt that there are accelerating changes on the ground related to earthquakes, rains, and climate change. These phenomena require the international community to strengthen cooperation in order to achieve sustainable development in the twenty-first century, with the need to keep these vital issues separate from political disputes.